07 Jan

Liberty vs. Aces predictions, picks, best bets by top experts

The 2023 WNBA Finals could come to an end on Sunday afternoon. The Las Vegas Aces and New York Liberty meet for Game 3 of the best-of-five series. Las Vegas leads the series by a 2-0 margin and would clinch the title with a Game 3 win. The Aces are unbeaten in the postseason after a 104-76 victory in Game 2, and the Liberty aim to avoid elimination with a win at home at the Barclays Center.

Tip-off is at 3 p.m. ET. The Aces are 2.5-point favorites, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 172.5 in the latest Liberty vs. Aces odds. Before you make any Aces vs. Liberty picks and WNBA predictions, you need to see what SportsLine women’s basketball experts Calvin Wetzel and Aaron Barzilai have to say.

Barzilai is a Ph.D. from Stanford who served as Director of Basketball Analytics for the Philadelphia 76ers. Five years ago, he founded HerHoopStats.com — a groundbreaking website that unlocks insights about the women’s game. Wetzel, the site’s lead betting writer, incorporates his mathematical background and strong knowledge of women’s hoops to turn the site’s prediction model into picks.

Now, Barzilai and Wetzel have turned their attention to the WNBA after going 996-685 on all college basketball picks over the last two seasons, putting them up 294 units since the start of the 2021-22 season. They also finished the 2022 WNBA regular season with a 54-44 mark in 2022. Anyone who has followed them has seen huge returns.

Now, Barzilai and Wetzel have set their sights on Aces vs. Liberty and just locked in their picks and WNBA Finals predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see their picks. Here are several WNBA odds and betting lines for Liberty vs. Aces:

Aces vs. Liberty spread: Aces -2.5
Aces vs. Liberty over/under: 172.5 points
Aces vs. Liberty money line: Aces -135, Liberty +115
Aces vs. Liberty picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Aces can cover
Las Vegas is in a dominant position after a fantastic season. The Aces posted the best record (34-6) and net rating during the regular season, and Las Vegas is unbeaten with seven straight wins in the playoffs. In that sample, the Aces have out-scored opponents by 121 total points, and are holding playoff opponents to only 0.91 points per possession. Opponents are shooting only 38.3% from the field with 16.7 assists per game against Las Vegas in playoff action, and New York is shooting only 40.7% from the field and 26.6% from 3-point range in the series.

On the offensive end, Las Vegas is averaging almost 1.29 points per possession against the Liberty, shooting 53.7% from the field, 43.1% from 3-point range, and 92.5% at the free throw line. In two games, the Aces have 52 assists and only 22 turnovers against the Liberty, and led the WNBA in points per game (92.8), field goal percentage (48.6%), 2-point percentage (54.9%), free throw percentage (84.0%), and turnovers (11.1 per game) during the regular season. See which team to pick here.

Why the Liberty can cover
New York has home-court advantage in Game 3 after strong results at home this season. The Liberty are 3-1 in playoff home games after going 15-5 in Brooklyn during the regular season. In those 20 regular season games, New York out-scored opponents by 10.1 points per 100 possessions, dominating with consistency. The Liberty are also creating havoc on the offensive glass in the playoffs, securing almost 34% of missed shots, and New York led the WNBA in 3-point accuracy (37.4%) and 3-pointers per game (11.1) during the regular season.

The Liberty also led the league with 24.1 assists per game and ranked in the top two in 2-point accuracy, field goal percentage, free throw percentage, and points per game. New York is also led by the 2023 WNBA MVP in Breanna Stewart, who finished the season averaging 23.0 points and 9.3 rebounds per game to win the award. Stewart is also a dominant defender, averaging 1.6 blocks and 1.5 steals per game, and veteran Jonquel Jones is averaging 17.1 points and 12.1 rebounds per game for New York in the playoffs. See which team to pick here.

How to make Aces vs. Liberty picks
For Game 3 of the 2023 WNBA Finals, Barzilai and Wetzel are leaning Over on the point total, but also highlight a critical X-factor that makes one side of the spread a must-back. They are only sharing what it is, and which side of the Aces vs. Liberty spread to back, at SportsLine.

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